Citigroup Projects 7 Percent Drop in Macau Gaming EBITDA for Second Quarter 2026

Citigroup analysts released their latest forecast in July 2026 projecting a 7 percent year-on-year decline in Macau’s second-quarter industry EBITDA, bringing the figure to roughly US$1.92 billion; that level would mark the lowest point since the third quarter of 2024, and the projection rests on two primary factors, the timing of the football World Cup and what the analysts describe as extremely unfavorable hold rates across the market.

Gross gaming revenue is expected to reach MOP$61.0 billion during the same period, the lowest quarterly total recorded since the first quarter of 2025, while EBITDA margins are forecast to contract by 1.5 percentage points to approximately 25.8 percent; the analysts observe that negative market sentiment already appears priced into current valuations and they point to a strong events calendar that should support a rebound through the third and fourth quarters.

Key Forecast Numbers and Timeline

The second-quarter projection covers the April-through-June window of 2026, a stretch that overlaps with major international football matches; observers note that historical patterns show reduced visitation and lower table hold percentages during such global events because many regular patrons shift attention toward tournament viewing rather than extended casino sessions.

Revenue and margin compression combine to produce the US$1.92 billion EBITDA estimate, a figure derived from applying the expected 25.8 percent margin to the MOP$61.0 billion gross gaming revenue base after currency conversion; analysts highlight that this outcome would represent the softest quarterly performance since reopening-era volatility settled into more normalized trading ranges.

Drivers Behind the Expected Decline

Two distinct elements receive emphasis in the Citigroup note: the World Cup schedule and hold-rate variability; the former influences footfall while the latter reflects statistical variance in win percentages on high-limit tables that can swing several points in either direction during any given quarter.

Hold rates, defined as the percentage of total bets retained by casinos after payouts, have shown particular weakness in recent periods according to the data reviewed by the analysts; when these rates fall below long-term averages they directly reduce the conversion of gross gaming revenue into EBITDA and the current forecast incorporates an assumption that this unfavorable trend persists through the second quarter.

Market Sentiment and Forward Outlook

Analysts state that much of the anticipated weakness has already been incorporated into share-price movements ahead of the quarter; this pricing-in effect means that actual delivery of the forecast numbers may not trigger additional downside pressure provided the subsequent quarters unfold as expected.

A robust calendar of events scheduled for the second half of 2026 forms the basis for the anticipated rebound; those events include major conventions, entertainment productions, and holiday periods that historically lift both mass-market and VIP volumes across the six concessionaires operating in Macau.

Quarterly Comparisons and Historical Context

Placing the projected MOP$61.0 billion gross gaming revenue against prior quarters reveals it would sit below the first-quarter 2025 reading and would interrupt a run of sequential gains that began after the post-pandemic recovery stabilized; EBITDA at US$1.92 billion would similarly fall beneath the levels posted in the first quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2025.

Those who track Macau’s monthly data releases will receive the official second-quarter figures later in 2026, allowing direct comparison against the Citigroup model; any material deviation in either gross gaming revenue or hold percentages could alter the final EBITDA outcome by several hundred million dollars.

Conclusion

The Citigroup forecast supplies a concise framework for evaluating Macau’s near-term performance, anchoring expectations around the US$1.92 billion EBITDA mark, the MOP$61.0 billion gross gaming revenue target, and the 25.8 percent margin level while signaling that the second-quarter dip should give way to stronger results once the World Cup period ends and the events calendar takes effect; market participants can monitor official statistics as they become available to assess how closely actual outcomes align with these projections.